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Part 1 of 4: Data driven reasoning of BJP’s Path to ~40% vote share and 320+ seats in 2024 General Elections
Setting up the framework, claim, and hypothesis India’s ongoing general elections are the world’s largest democratic exercise, with over 900 million eligible voters casting their ballots to choose their representatives. This massive electoral process dwarfs other democratic elections; for comparison, the 2020 US presidential election saw about 160 million voters, while the European Union, with…
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Part 2 of 4: Data driven reasoning of BJP’s Path to ~40% vote share and 320+ Seats in the 2024 General Elections
Mapping BJP’s Core Vote Share Across India Analyzing every single state in India individually is not feasible due to the vast and diverse nature of the country. However, by selecting a few diverse states, we can identify trends that serve as robust proxies for the overall trend in the country. Firstly, India’s political landscape is…
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Part 3 of 4: Data driven reasoning of BJP’s Path to ~40% vote share and 320+ Seats in the 2024 General Elections
Mystical phenomenon of BJP’s National Vote Premium In Part 1, the framework has been established while the Part 2 explores BJP’s core vote share (CVS) growth. In this blog, we aim to calculate the national vote premium (NVP) for BJP and analyze this unusual, noteworthy, even mystical phenomenon. I would like to reiterate that this…
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Part 4 of 4: Data driven reasoning of BJP’s Path to ~40% vote share and 320+ Seats in the 2024 General Elections
Predicting BJP’s Performance in the 2024 General Election In this concluding part of our series, we will synthesize the insights from our previous analyses to predict BJP’s performance in the upcoming general elections. By leveraging the core vote share (CVS) growth identified in Part 2 and the national vote premium (NVP) calculated in Part 3,…
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